AN ECONOMIC STUDY OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND FUTURE PROSPECTS FOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN ELWADY ELGEDID | ||
| Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 7, Volume 24, Issue 2 - Serial Number 1, September 2016, Pages 349-371 PDF (667.64 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajs.2016.14324 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Shahira M. Reda* ; Ahmed S. Ghani | ||
| Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Giza, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Elwady Elgedid considered as a promising Governorate in the field of sustainable agricultural development. This research aims to identify the current situation of agricultural plant production, crop composition, as well as crop yield, Agricultural Animal Production and the change in the number of cattle. The future prospects of agricultural production are also estimated. Proposals and recommendations on how to exploit the available optimum utilization of agricultural resources are also stated. The results showed that the average crop area, the value of agricultural production, the agricultural income and agricultural employment of Elwady Elgedid Governorate represents about 1.3%, 0.4%, 0.05%, 0.12% 0.12%, of the total crop area, agricultural production value, the value of production inputs, agricultural income value, the number of agricultural workers of the Republic. Results also showed that wheat crop area and production represents about 1.9% 1.5% of the area and production of wheat crop in the Republic. The area and production of faba bean crop represents about 4.9% to 4.3% of the area and production of faba bean crop in the Republic. The area and production of the winter tomato crop represents about 1.4% 1.8% of the area and production of the winter tomato crop in the Republic. While the area and production of alfalfa represents about 65.8%, 65.8% of the area and the production of alfalfa in the Republic as an average of the period, while the area and the production of sesame crop represents about 0.49%, 0.36% of the area and production of sesame crop in the Republic as an average of the period. The area and production of maize represent around 0.34%, 0.07% of the area and production of maize crop in the Republic as an average of the period. For Animal Production, numbers of cattle buffalo, sheep, goats, camels, representing about 2.6%, 1.3%, 0.97%, respectively of the total number in the Republic. By studying the expectation of future agricultural production in Elwady Elgedid Governorate years 2015, 2016 and 2017 showed the following: The crop area, agricultural production, agricultural production inputs, agricultural income and agricultural workers will increase with an increase estimated at 1.05%, 3.1%, 3.3%, 3.5%, 0.07% respectively out of 2014, and the area of wheat, bean and alfalfa, will increase by 2.1%, 70.8%, 0.09% Respectively from 2014, while summer sesame area will fall by 55.2% from 2014. The expectation for the future productivity of bean, and winter tomatoes will rise by 5.7%, 14.9% respectively from 2014, while the maize, summer sesame and alfalfa production will drop by 0.3%, 5.9%, and 5.2% from 2014. Forecasting the future of summer bean production will rise by 44.5% from 2014, while summer sesame, tomato and alfalfa production will fall by 70.13%, 1.4%, 5.3 respectively out of 2014.While forecasting the future number of, sheep, goats will rise by 0.55%, 0.06% respectively while the number of cows, buffalo, and camels will go down by 1.9%, 9.1%,1.3% from 2014. The research recommends dissemination crops appropriate to soil conditions and the environment in all varieties preservation area, and creates herd's nucleus for each of goats, cows and sheep, in the form of model farms. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Elwady Elgedid; Agriculture Production; Agricultural Forecast; ARIMA Model | ||
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