AN ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE EGYPTIAN COTTON MARKET AND EXPECTATIONS OF FUTURE IN THE LIGHT OF ECONOMIC VARIABLES ON THE WORLD COTTON MARKET | ||
| Arab Universities Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 1, Volume 19, Issue 2, September 2011, Pages 275-294 PDF (1.15 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ajs.2011.14779 | ||
| Authors | ||
| W.A.A Gowily* 1; Rehan M.K.2; Abd El-Maksoud A.M.2 | ||
| 1Agric. Research Center, Ministry of Agric., Dokki, Giza, Egypt | ||
| 2Economic Dept., Fac. Agric., Ain Shams Univ., Shoubra El-Kheima, Cairo, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The study showed that the average amount of global production of cotton during the period (2004-2008) was estimated at 20.849 million tons. Where China, United States of America and India in the front of producing countries and was the relative importance of the Egyptian production of cotton for the world in tenth place. The harvested area it may an annual average of about 33.205 million hectares during the same period. Where India, United States of America and China in the front of those countries, while the average quantity of world exports during the same period was estimated at 8.293 million tons / year. Where United States of America, Uzbekistan and India in the front of those countries, were ranked Egypt in the ninth position. while the imports it may average annual rate during the same period was estimated at 7.76 million tons / year. Where China, Turkey and Indonesia in the front of those countries, The world Stock comes China ,United States of America and India in the front of those countries during the same period, while the consumption of cotton, it may average annual rate during the same period was estimated at 21.15 million tons / year. Where China, India and Pakistan in the front of those countries. There is also a decrease in the area of the Extra long staple cotton in Egypt by 6040 feddan per year during the period (1990-2008). The area of long-staple cotton, there is a decrease up to 18190 feddan annually during the same period, while the production of Extra long staple cotton there are decline 6620 tons annually, while the production of long staple cotton there is a decline of 13,250 tons annually during the same period. With regard to the evolution of the total production costs of cotton in Egypt, there are increasing by 113.14 pounds / feddan per year as well as prices of farm cotton in Egypt, there are increasing by 170.95 pounds / tons every year either total return for Egyptian cotton, there is increased total 173.34 pounds / feddan per year during the same period, The net return of cotton feddan to the study, noted the relative stability, and that it ranges around the arithmetic mean during the study period. Looks at the future of cotton in the world by forecasting its progress during the period (2009-2018), the direction of the Beginning stock to decline during the same period, while that the harvested area and end stock ,consumption relatively stable during the same Period, while exports and imports tended to increase during the same period, As for the forecasting of the Egyptian market during the same period the harvested area has tended to decline while increasing domestic consumption and with the relative stability in the beginning stock, as well as exports, Comparing the results to predict the global and Egyptian variables is showed Egyptian market for cotton towards the import of foreign cotton | ||
| Keywords | ||
| World markets; Forecast; Cotton exports; ARIMA | ||
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