Predicting the production and consumption of the most important crops and strategic agricultural commodities "until 2023 using the Box-Jenkins methodology | ||
| Fayoum Journal of Agricultural Research and Development | ||
| Article 17, Volume 34, Issue 1, January 2020, Pages 100-111 PDF (976.87 K) | ||
| Document Type: Research articles. | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/fjard.2020.189711 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Sadek Inas1; Shalabi Ayman1; Mohamed Amr2 | ||
| 1Agricultural Economics Dept., Fac. Of Agric., El- Fayoum Univ. | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Institute | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Predicting the production and consumption of the most important crops and strategic agricultural commodities "until 2023 using the Box-Jenkins methodology": As it was clear from the results of forecasting the production and consumption of the most important crops and strategic agricultural commodities in Egypt until the year 2023, it is expected to increase the production and consumption of (wheat, maize, and vegetable oils). As it was clear from the results of forecasting wheat production and consumption until 2023 that he expects to increase the amount of wheat production by an increase representing about 11.6% of 2017, while the amount of wheat consumption is expected to increase by an increase that represents about 3.5% of 2017. A slight decrease in the wheat gap is expected from about 15.92 million tons to about 15.82 million tons, representing about 0.8% from 2017. While it was evident from the results of the prediction of the production of maize until 2023, it is expected that the amount of maize production will increase by an increase representing about 5.8% from 2017, while the amount of maize consumption is expected to increase by an increase representing about 3.2% from 2017. A slight increase in the gap is also expected from the consumption of maize from about 8078 thousand tons to about 8110 thousand tons, representing about 0.4% of 2017. While it is expected that the percentage of production of each of the oils will decrease in light of the increase in the consumption rate of each of them until the year 2023. As it was clear from the results of forecasting the production and consumption of oils until the year 2023 that he expects the amount of oil production to decrease by about 25.8% from 2017, while the amount of oil consumption is expected to increase by an increase representing about 45.3% from 2017. It is also expected to increase the gap in the consumption of oil crops from about 469 thousand tons to about 952 thousand tons, representing about 103% of 2017 | ||
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