The impact of exchange rate liberalization on the most important cereal crops in Egypt (wheat) | ||
| Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 6, Volume 47, Issue 4, December 2021, Pages 485-497 PDF (3.39 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsas.2021.82374.1293 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Fatheya Salem1; Roshdy Eladawy1; Al-Hussaini A. Al-Nafili2; Om Hashim Zaki* 2 | ||
| 1Agricultural Economics Branch - Agricultural Economics Dept., Faculty of Agriculture - Kafrelsheikh University – Egypt | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center - Kafr El-Sheikh – Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The study aims to analyze and estimate the impact of the exchange rate liberalization on the wheat crop during the period (2000-2019), and by studying the development of productive and economic indicators of the wheat crop, it was found that the cultivated area and production increased by an annual amount of 0.022 million feddans and 0.018 million tons, respectively. The farm, total costs, total revenue, and net return increased by 0.101, 0.110, 0.099, 0.074 pounds / feddan, respectively, while it was found that human work, automated service, seed price, municipal fertilizer, chemical fertilizer, pesticide price, rent increased by Annual amounted to 0.122, 0.108, 0.112, 0.098, 0.103, 0.118, 0.114 pounds/acre. By studying the impact of the exchange rate on economic indicators during the period (2013-2019), it was found that the first period (2013/2015) increased from the second period (2017/2019) with a change rate of 47.73%, 97.05%, 44.81%, -22.1%, 70.43%, 104.29%, 100.24%, 144.84%, 69.89%, 32.32%, 175.25% for each of the farm price, total costs, total revenue, net return, human labor, automated service, seed price, municipal fertilizer, chemical fertilizer, pesticide price, Rent on order. By studying (the effect of passing) during the period (2000-2009/2010-2019), it was found that the increase in the exchange rate of the US dollar by one pound led to a rise in the import price of the wheat crop by about EGP 1.99. It was found that an increase in the exchange rate by 10% leads to an increase in the import price of wheat by 2.9%. It was also found that there is a one-way causal relationship between the exchange rate and the import price of wheat. The study recommends 1 - that the increase in total costs at a rate of change of about .97.05% led to a decrease in the net return at a rate of -22.1% for wheat, so it is necessary to establish parallel policies between input and output prices in the agricultural sector, with a tightening of the supervisory role, especially on prices production supplies. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| exchange rate; wheat yield; rate of change; pass-through effect; causation; normal distribution; residuals of the model | ||
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