Using Moving Time Series Models to Forecast of Economic Variables of Wheat in Egypt | ||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||
| Article 32, Volume 42, Issue 3, September 2021, Pages 1783-1799 PDF (892.36 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2021.194883 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Moataz Eliw* 1; Eman Ramadan* 2 | ||
| 1Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Beni-Suef University | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Benha university. | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Egypt has been suffering from an absolute shortage of wheat production and supplies for domestic consumption, which has affected the overall food security situation in the country. As a result, the government relies heavily on wheat imports to compensate for the shortage of domestic supplies. This study was designed to study the economic indicators of wheat in Egypt and predict the economic variables to estimate the apparent gap and the value of imports of wheat to provide some recommendations can be help the decision-makers and agricultural policy-makers related to wheat in Egypt. To achieve the objectives of the study we applied a moving time-series models (ARIMA), and the results of forecasting economic variables of wheat in Egypt, which were statistically confirmed according to several related tests, showed that the total production of wheat in 2025 is expected to reach 8.2 million tons, while the total consumption is expected to reach 21.1 million tons, and therefore the apparent gap for wheat in Egypt will reach 12.9 million tons. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Wheat Crop; Production; Consumption; ARIMA Models; Egypt | ||
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