Evolution of Crude Oil Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Application of Time Series ARIMA Forecasting Model | ||
| Delta University Scientific Journal | ||
| Article 1, Volume 4, Issue 1, April 2021, Pages 1-12 PDF (908.91 K) | ||
| Document Type: Review articles | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/dusj.2021.205887 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Assia ATIL1; Bouchra MAHFOUD2 | ||
| 1Department of Economics, LADBG, Université 8 Mai 1945- Guelma, Algeria | ||
| 2Department of Economics, LRIEDD, Badji Mokhtar- Annaba University, Algeria | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Given the high level of uncertainty experienced by open economies in the light of Coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) and global economic recession expectations, predictive studies become extremely important, particularly when it comes to commodities with high global demand. Because crude oil is a major source of energy on which most economic and commercial activities are based, the primary aim of the study is to forecast oil prices for the within and out-of-sample period using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). Study results showed that the ARIMA model is delivering satisfactory results in the prediction process. Moreover, prices are expected to see a slight increase and stability over the next few months. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| COVID-19; ARIMA; Crude Oil; Forecasting and Prices | ||
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