ستخدام السلاسل الزمنية للتنبؤ في انتاج الطاقة الکهربائية في العراق | ||
| المجلة المصرية للدراسات التجارية | ||
| Article 6, Volume 42, Issue 4, October 2018, Pages 393-427 PDF (1.68 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/alat.2018.207560 | ||
| Authors | ||
| کريم خلف عزر1; علي محمد علي2 | ||
| 1جامعة سومر | ||
| 2جامعة ميسان | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Abstract Predicting the future behavior of time series is an important topic in statistical science. Therefore, the forecast of electricity production in Iraq is important as the daily need for electricity in .all areas of life In this study, two methods of prediction were selected, namely the Box Jenkins method and the exponential boot methods, where the two methods were compared to the best method of prediction in the first two methods based on MAPE and MAE and the second comparison between the real values of 2011 forz the types of production and predictive values for the same year according to RMSE. | ||
| References | ||
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4- Box, G.E.P., & Jenkins, G.M. (1970), "Time series analysis: forecasting and control", Holden-Day, San Francisco. 5- Bone, R., and Asad, M. (2003), "Boosting recurrent neural networks for Time series prediction"m RAFI publication, International conference in Roanne, France, April . 6- Bowerman, B.L. and R.T.O.' Connel (1988), "time series and forecasting: An applied approach", Duxbury press, north scituate, MA. 7- BLOOMFIELD,PETER,'' FOURIER ANALYSIS OF TIME SERIES '' An Introduction,second edition – 2000 . 8- Ledolter J., and B. Abraham (1983), "Statistical methods for forecasting", John Wiley and Sons, New York. | ||
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