Climate change and wheat production capacity scenarios in Egypt | ||
| Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 10, Volume 48, Issue 1, March 2022, Pages 83-92 PDF (1.57 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsas.2021.102970.1318 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Azza Fahmy* 1; سهام ذکى داود2; mohamed abdalnaby3; elsayed atallah4 | ||
| 1اخصائی زراعی، معهد بØوث الاقتصاد الزراعی | ||
| 2کلیة الزراعة - جامعة دمیاط | ||
| 3استاذ بمعهد بØوث الإقتصاد الزراعى | ||
| 4کلية الزراعة جامعة دمياط | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The effects of climate change have become widespread, both locally and globally,and the agriculture sector is the most affected by climatic conditions, threatening the achievement of food security and sustainable development. The increase in temperatures in 2018 led to a decrease in wheat productivity to 2.68 tons /feddan, compared to 2.88 tons /feddan in 2017, which leads to a decrease in the self-sufficiency rate of about 43% in 2018, which represents a burden on the food trade balance. The research aims to study the impact of climatic changes on total. The study relied on using of simple regression equations, Phillips-Perron test, the use of the co-integration test according to the ARDL model. The most important results were: It turns out that a relative increase of 10% for each of the maximum temperature for the month of March, the minimum temperature for the month of March, the relative humidity for the month of April, for the minimum temperature for the month of April will lead to a statistically significant relative decrease in the productivity of the wheat crop, amounting to about 4.32%, 3.87%, 1.90% and 2.97% respectively, The combined effect of climatic changes will decrease feddan productivity and consequently a decrease in farm income from about7% to about 34% At the national level, the import capacity will increase as a result of the decrease in wheat production capacity by imposing the stability of consumer energy, and then adecrease in wheat self-sufficiency rates from about 47.47% to about 31.22%. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Climate changes; ARDL model; co-integration; time series stability; wheat production capacity; food security; agricultural economics | ||
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