Determinants of mediterranean fisheries production in the alexandria governorate | ||
| Alexandria Science Exchange Journal | ||
| Article 29, Volume 43, Issue 1, March 2022, Pages 195-207 PDF (603.45 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/asejaiqjsae.2022.220929 | ||
| Author | ||
| Fatma Elzahraa Ahmed GEBRIL* | ||
| Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The research problem is that fish production from Mediterranean fisheries in the province of Alexandria is declining, especially in recent times, It was about 3.68 tons according to the average period (2015- 2019), compared to 16.82 tons according to the average period (2005- 2009), The objectives of the research were set out as follows: (1) Study of the evolution of fish production from marine fisheries in the province of Alexandria during the period (2005-2019), (2) development of marine fishing effort in the province, (3) identification of the main economic factors affecting fishing production by marine fisheries in the province of Alexandria; (4) studying seasonal fluctuations in fish production and predicting monthly production of marine fisheries in the province of Alexandria, and (5) identification of the main impediments to the development of fisheries production by marine fisheries in order to establish procedures and measures to address and overcome them. (1) fish production from Mediterranean fisheries in the province of Alexandria annual rate of about 15.9% during the period (2005- 2019). (2) Fish production at max catches accounts for about 92% of marine fisheries in Alexandria, This proportion decreases by about 1.1% annually, The catch of Abu Qir is about 6.6%, and this percentage increases by about 13.6% annually during the study period, The relative importance of fish production from the max catch was also found to be more stable than that of Abu Qir according to the difference factor estimated at 58.5% and 48% 72 respectively. (3) A study of the evolution of fishing efforts in the province of Alexandria shows that the number of sailboats during the study period declined at an annual rate of about 7.4 per cent, while statistical morale was not demonstrated by the rate of change of both motorized boats and fishermen during the same period. (4) By studying the factors affecting fish production using the Box Jenkins methodology, it turns out that the best model is a model. ARMA (1,0), an estimated model showing that the most significant variable affecting the amount of fish production is the number of motorized boats, followed by the number of sailboats, and based on this model, fish production is expected to decline from about 2,15 thousand tons in 2019 to about 560 tons in 2023. (5) By predicting monthly fish production at the Max and Abu Qir catchers, the expected amount of fish production during the year 2020 will fall below the actual amount during all months of the year according to the average period (2015- 2019). (6) The main constraints to the development of Mediterranean fisheries production in the province of Alexandria have also been identified through interviews with fishermen and can be summarized as follows: (1) pollution of seawater: Because of the dumping of waste and the leaking of oil stains from ships loaded with oil, leading to a reduction in fish production, (2) illegal fishing, resulting in the depletion of fish from seawater to black market traders for the plant, (3) lack of cadastral maps of Mediterranean fishing sites to serve fishermen in these areas; (4) higher costs of supplying boats with fuel, spare parts and fishing supplies; (5) The compulsory suspension of Mediterranean fishing during May and June of each year for the development of the pretext is incorrect from the fisherman's point of view, because the only net that can extract the pretext from the sea is the trawler's mesh, so there is no need to stop the activity of all other types of boats. To develop marine fisheries production in Alexandria Province, the research recommends the following measures and mechanisms: (1) to guide fishermen with the most important technical and technological fishing techniques for motorized vessels to obtain higher production rates than current ones; (2) strict and firm enforcement of fishing laws and the prohibition of fishing violations, and limiting the enforcement of moratorium laws during the months of May and June to trawlers to give biological comfort to fisheries; (3) the control of pollution in its various forms in the marine environment, whether it be amphibious, health or industrial pollution, and the continued clearance and protection of boas; (4) interest in the development of infrastructure in the Eastern Port and the Infoshy and the establishment of full marketing services at production sites; (5) assessment of fish stocks by conducting a comprehensive survey of the Mediterranean Sea and making fish dispersal maps, (6) establishment of marine fish plantations for the exploitation of coastal areas in the Mediterranean Sea, and (7) to propose alternative programmes for the employment of fishermen during fishing prevention periods and to provide them with the necessary subsidies through the Fishermen's Cooperative Federation. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| ARIMA models; ARMA models; Mediterranean fisheries in Alexandria; Box Jenkies methodology | ||
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