Predicting the Egyptian Consumer Price Index in Covid-19 Pandemic using Weighted Markov Chain | ||
| مجلة البحوث المالية والتجارية | ||
| Article 13, Volume 23, Issue 2, April 2022, Pages 449-464 PDF (502.26 K) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsst.2022.128900.1386 | ||
| Author | ||
| مها توفيق* | ||
| کلية التجارة جامعة طتطا | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Abstract Covid-19 is an infectious disease caused by acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus. It decreases the people's purchasing power. It also decreases country's economic development ingrowth indicates. Therefore- in Covid-19 Pandemic- predicting consumer price index occurs commonly referred to explain its effects on the Egyptian’s economic development is very important. This study aimed to predict short-term trend of Egyptian consumer price index using weighted Markov Chain (WMC) in Covid-19 Pandemic taking the national consumer price index data from (feb2020) to -July 2021 as an example. A new weighting scheme to predict consumer price index under weighted Markov chain model was proposed. In predicting the consumer price index, the results obtained by researchers are: in Aug 2021 CPI =114.85 has a 79.15% chance and in Sep 2021 CPI = 116.785 has a 79.76% chance. we can find that: of short-term trend of Egyptian consumer price index, the weighted Markov chain can effectively probabilities and forecast fluctuation ranges. Based on the results of the study | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Introduction; .Method of Markov process; Application; Weighted Markov Chain (WMC)Abstract | ||
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