Modeling and Forecasting Egyptian GDP: Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average Model | ||
| Journal of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences | ||
| Article 6, Volume 13, Issue 7, July 2022, Pages 279-283 PDF (827.94 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jaess.2022.147684.1060 | ||
| Author | ||
| Vز Shaker* | ||
| Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University, Egypt. | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total worth of all goods and services produced within a country's boundaries in a given year. It has become the single best indicator of economic growth. GDP per capita, on the other hand, correlates closely with the living standard trend through time. Prior studies have only relied on a yearly series when analyzing and forecasting Egypt’s GDP. In this work, the appropriate Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average (ARIMA) model for the Egyptian GDP data was built using the Box-Jenkins approach (BJ). The BJ methodology follows a four-step procedure: Identification, Estimation, Diagnostic Checking, and Forecasting. Quarterly GDP data for Egypt was obtained from the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development (MPED) for the fiscal years (2001/02-2020/21). The results indicate that ARIMA (3,1,3) is the most appropriate model, considering model selection criteria. Furthermore, goodness-of-fit tests were performed to confirm that the model is well calibrated. The forecasted estimates suggest that Egyptian GDP will continue to rise as long as there are no serious swings in the economy over the forecast period. These findings can be used to aid policymakers in directing future planning and development. Looking forward, further attempts could prove quite beneficial to the literature. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Gross domestic product; Quarterly series; Autoregressive-Integrated Moving-Average model; Box-Jenkins approach; Egyptian economy | ||
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