An Econometric Study for the Current and Future Situation of Broad-Beans in Egypt | ||
| Scientific Journal of Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 7, Volume 4, Issue 2, September 2022, Pages 75-96 PDF (1.49 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/sjas.2022.158793.1248 | ||
| Author | ||
| Mahmoud Abdeltawab Arafa* | ||
| Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agric., Cairo Un., Giza, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| This Paper aims to analyze the current and future situation of Broad-Beans in Egypt. It starts with studying cultivated area and its distribution to the regions, the ratio of old and new lands, the productivity of feddan, the volume of both production and consumption, exports and imports, net trade, the gap, and the per capita are studded. Then it focuses on the monetary production function, and the efficiency of irrigation water. In the second section, the Box-Jenkins method applied to make forecasting to indicators of the studded crop until 2030. The unit root test was performed using the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, and several models were compared on the basis of four criteria: the largest value of the determination coefficient, and the lowest value of the standard error, the lowest value of the Akaike information criterion(AIC), and the lowest value for the Schwarz information criterion(SIC). The ARIMA models that were selected for forecasting are: ARIMA(0,1,1) for area, ARIMA(2,2,3) for consumption, and ARIMA(0, 1,1) for production, ARIMA(0,1,3) for per capita, ARIMA(0,1,2) for gap, ARIMA(0,1,1) for exports, ARIMA(1,1,1) For imports. Autocorrelation Function (ACF) and Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF) were studied to confirm the stationarity. In the end, the Broad-Beans indicators were Forecasted until 2030, and the averages for these indicators were about 75,986 Feddan for area decreasing by 34% compared to the previous decade, about 86 thousand tons of production decreasing by 36%, about 1771 thousand tons for consumption increasing by 24%, about 6.26 kg/person/year for per capita decreasing by 1%, about 335 thousand tons for the gap increasing by 314%, about 27 thousand tons for exports increasing by 73%, and about 281 thousand tons for imports increasing by 205%. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Broad Beans road Beans; Box-Jenkins Method; ARIMA; Forecasting using Time Series | ||
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