Econometric Estimation of The Most Important Factors Affecting Wheat Gap and Expectation in Egypt | ||
| Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences | ||
| Article 28, Volume 45, Issue 2, June 2019, Pages 91-100 PDF (1.68 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/jsas.2019.6883.1125 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Mourad Moussa1; Ashraf Elftiani2; Yasmin Hanbal* 1 | ||
| 1Agricultural Economics Department, Faculty of Ariculture, Kafrelsheikh University. | ||
| 2Economics Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center, Kafrelsheikh, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The wheat crop is one of the main food crops with an strategic importance in the food pattern .In 2016, local production was not able to cover consumption needs from the wheat, resulting in a food gap of about 10.07 million tons and a self-sufficiency decrease to about 48.15%. The main objective is to identify the current status of wheat food gap in Egypt during the period (2000-2016) and its future forecasting up to 2025 The results indicated that Egypt's wheat production is expected to increase in 2019 with 10.17% from the current production in 2016 and is expected to increase in 2025 with 24.45%. Egypt's consumption of wheat is expected to increase in 2019, with 4.35% over the total consumption in 2016 and is expected to increase about 20.8% in 2025. The food gap in 2025 is expected to increase about 17.4% from 2016. The average estimates of the most important factors affecting wheat shows that increasing the local production of wheat crop about 10% leads to a decrease in the food gap about 14.5% at the level of significant (1%), while increasing it The average population per capita and the loss of 10% increases the wheat gap about 19.8%, 33.1% and 19.5% at the usual level of significant. The study recommends that production should be increase 150.9% from the wheat production in 2016 to overcome food gap in 2025, furthermore decreasing the annual wheat consumption from 160 to 100 kg /person is important. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| econometric; estimatio; most important; factors; affecting; Wheat gap; and it's expectation in Egypt | ||
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