المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري بالقرن الواحد والعشرين Economic Determinants of Maritime Shipping in 21st Century

Fouad Abdel Rahman Mohamed Yones, Rasha

doi:10.21608/jsfc.2022.299776

المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري بالقرن الواحد والعشرين Economic Determinants of Maritime Shipping in 21st Century

المجلة العلمية لقطاع کليات التجارة بجامعة الأزهر

Editorial, Volume 28, Issue 1, June 2022, Pages 26-58 PDF (950.53 K)

DOI: 10.21608/jsfc.2022.299776

Author

Rasha Fouad Abdel Rahman Mohamed Yones^*

College of International Transport and Logistics Arab Academy for Science, Technology and Maritime Transport

Abstract

مستخلص
تبحث الدراسة من خلال بناء وتقدير نماذج قياسية لدراسة المحددات الاقتصادية للنقل البحري ومحدداته في عينة من دول منطقة الشرق الاوسط وشمال افريقيا باستخدام بيانات سنوية للفترة من 2000 الى 2019 بتطبيق نموذج الانحدار الذاتي للإبطاء الموزع ثم دمج نموذج تصحيح الخطأ لتحديد العلاقة قصيرالاجل والعلاقة طويلة الاجل بين المتغيرات محل الدراسة. تم تقدير نموذجين على ثلاث مستويات اولا تقديره لجميع الدول محل الدراسة ثم تقديره لمجموعة الدول ذات الدخل المرتفع واخيرا تقديره لمجموعة الدول ذات الدخل المتوسط. اختبر تأثير الدخل القومي الاجمالي واسعار البترول والتجارة السلعية على النقل البحري. اشارت نتائج تقديرات النموذجين للتأثير المعنوي الايجابي للدخل القومي الاجمالي، والصادرات والتجارة السلعية في الاجل الطويل، والتاثير المعنوي السلبي لسعر الصرف في الاجل الطويل.
Abstract
The usual growth trend of maritime transport deviated from its usual growth pattern since the second half of 21^st century. This shows the importance of investigating main factors of maritime shipping during this period. The paper analyzes short-run and long-run dynamics deploying panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model based on specification and model examination. Two models estimated for 13 countries in MENA region from 2000 till 2019 then re-estimated for upper-income countries and middle-income countries to specify main determinants in each country sub- group. Results found that main factors affecting maritime in 21^st century is GDP which found to be statistical positive significant at both short run and long at all estimations. Merchandize trade, exports and oil prices found to be statistically positive significant at long run. Demand of maritime transport found to be more elastic in long run, exchange rate found to be negatively significant at long run.

Keywords

محددات; النقل البحري; الدخل القومي الاجمالي; الانحدار الذاتي لفترات الإبطاء الموزع; التجارة الدولية. Keywords: world economy؛ oil prices؛ panel ARDL؛ freight rate؛ trade؛ maritime shipping

References

Akbulaev N, Bayramli G (2020) Maritime transport and economic growth: Interconnection and influence (an example of the countries in the Caspian Sea coast; Russia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, and Iran). Mar Policy 118:104005.

Asghar, N., Qureshi, S. & Nadeem, M. (2015), Institutional Quality and Economic Growth: Panel ARDL Analysis for Selected Developing Economies of Asia, A Research Journal of South Asian Studies Vol. 30, No.2, July – December 2015, pp. 381 - 404.

Bai, X., & Lam, J.S.L. (2019). An integrated analysis of interrelationships within the very large gas
carrier (VLGC) shipping market. Marit Econ Logist 372–389.

Cai, S., & Gong, Y. (1999). Enterprise technology Innovation in Product Life Cycle. Techno economics & Management (2), 26–27 (1999)

Esmer, S. (2018), The Factors Affecting the Sea Transportation in The New Globalization Era , Journal of Management, Marketing and logistics JMML- V.5-ISS.3-2018(1)-p.166-171

Ferson, W & Harvey, C. (1994). Sources of Risk and Expected Returns in Global Equity Markets. Journal of Banking and Finance, 18: 775-803.

Grammeno, C. & Arkoulis, A. (2002). Macroeconomic Factors and International Shipping Stock Returns. International Journal of Maritime Economics (2002) 4, 81-99.

Khan, S., Yu, Z. & Sharif, A. (2020), Determinants of economic growth and environmental sustainability. Environmental Science and Pollution Research (2020) 27:45675–45687 in South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation: evidence from panel ARDL

Leggate, HK. (1999). Norwegian Shipping: Measuring Foreign Exchange Risk, Maritime Policy and Management. 26: 81-91.

Lv, R. & Wang, J. (2011). Research on Channels Managerial Tactics Based on Product Life Cycle Theory. M. Dai et al. (Eds.): ICCIC 2011, Part II, CCIS 232, pp. 211–217, 2011. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011.

McConville, J. (1999). Economics of Maritime Transport: Theory and Practice, London: Wither by.
Poon, S and Taylor S. 1991: Macroeconomic Factors and the UK Stock Market. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 18: 619-636.

Michail, N. (2020), World economic growth and seaborne trade volume: Quantifying the relationship. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives 4 (2020) 100108

Millan, P., Pino, B. & Castro, V. (2005). Determinants of the demand for maritime imports and exports. Transportation Research Part E 41 (2005) 357–372

Osadume, R. & Blessing, U. C. (2020). Maritime Trade and Economic Development: A Granger Causality and Bound Test Approach. LOGI – Scientific Journal on Transport and Logistics
Vol. 11 No. 2 2020 .

Rafindadi, A. (2013). An Application of Panel ARDL in Analyzing the Dynamics of Financial Development and Economic Growth in 38 Sub-Saharan African Continents. Proceeding - Kuala Lumpur International Business, Economics and Law Conference Vol. 2. December 2 - 3, 2013. Hotel Putra, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Rodrigue JP (2020). The geography of transport systems. Routledge, New York

Rodrigue, J. P. (2016). Transportation and globalization. Encyclopedia of Globalization, Edited by Roland Robertson and Jan Aart Scholte. Routledge.

Rodrigue, J. P. (2010). Maritime transportation: drivers for the shipping and port industries. International Transport Forum, Paris.

Saxon, S. & Stone, S. (2017). Container shipping, the next 50 years. McKinsey & Company. Travel, Transport & Logistics.

Smith, A. (1982). The Wealth of Nations: Books I-III. Edited by Andrew Skinner. London, England: Penguin Group (USA).

Stopford, M. (1997). Maritime transport, 3rd edn. Routledge, New York

Stopford, M. (1988). Maritime Economics. 1st ed. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group, New York.

UNCTAD (2005), Review of Maritime Transport. UNCTAD/RMT/2005.

UNCTAD (2017), Review of Maritime Transport. UNCTAD/RMT/2017.

UNCTAD (2018a), 50 Years of Review of Maritime transport 1968-2018: Reflecting on the past, exploring the future. UNCTAD publication.

UNCTAD (2018b), Review of Maritime Transport. UNCTAD/RMT/2018.

UNCTAD (2019) Review of maritime transport 2019. United Nations publications. Sales, No. E.19 IID.20. New York and
Geneva

Wang, Q., Hu, Q. & Zhang, Y. (2010), A Study on Enterprise Technology Innovation Patterns Based on the Product Life Cycle Theory. DET2009 Proceedings, AISC 66, pp. 1603–1611. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Yin, J., Shi, J., (2018). Seasonality patterns in the container shipping freight rate market. Marit. Policy Manag. 159–173.

Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. & Smith. R. (1999). An Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis. In Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial Symposium, edited by Steinar Storm, 371–413. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Pesaran H, & Smith R. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. J Econom 1995;68:79e113.

Pesaran, H., Shin, Y. & Smith. R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(3), 289-326.

da Silva,P., Cerqueira, A., & Ogbe, W. (2018). Determinants of renewable energy growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from panel ARDL. Energy Volume 156, 1 August 2018, Pages 45-54

Zannetos, ZS. (1966). The Theory of Oil Tankship Rates: An Economic An