A. Hussein, M. (1993). Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010. test, 27(2), 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
Mounira A. Hussein. "Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010". test, 27, 2, 1993, 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
A. Hussein, M. (1993). 'Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010', test, 27(2), pp. 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
A. Hussein, M. Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010. test, 1993; 27(2): 67-81. doi: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393

Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010

المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة
Article 1, Volume 27, Issue 2, December 1993, Pages 67-81    PDF (8.07 M)
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية
DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1993.303393
Author
Mounira A. Hussein
College of Commerce, Menoufia University
Abstract
Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992 - 2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992 - 2010. Needless to say: that these predictions are of great value for policy makers and workers in family planning field.
Keywords
ARIMA; Fertility; Mortality; Egypt
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