The impact of population growth on food security in Egypt | ||
| المجلة المصرية للاقتصاد الزراعي | ||
| Volume 33, Issue 3, September 2023, Pages 1218-1231 PDF (731.03 K) | ||
| Document Type: أبحاث علمیة متخصصة فی الاقتصاد الزراعی | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/meae.2023.230697.1221 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Yosri Nasr Ahmed* 1; Yahia Hamid Elasraag2 | ||
| 1كلية الزراعة جامعة القاهرة | ||
| 2Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Cairo University | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The increase in population has a notable effect on ensuring food availability. Numerous research studies have demonstrated that as population size grows, there is a corresponding rise in the need for food, which can potentially result in shortages and food insecurity. Meanwhile, Egypt's population is expected to reach 125 million by 2030. This poses many challenges for the agricultural sector and threatens food security in Egypt, which is already threatened. This paper examines the effect of population growth on food security in Egypt using a dynamic multimarket model that extends from the base year 2020 to 2030.The empirical analysis shows a remarkable improvement in the production of the crops under study at varying rates; the wheat crop comes at the forefront of crops, as it is clear that Egypt’s production of wheat has increased to about 20.46 million tons in 2030 compared to about 9.10 million tons in 2020/2021, in addition to an increase in maize production to 10.94 million tons in 2030 compared to 7.59 million tons in 2020/2021. The reason for this is due to the improvement in productivity of the aforementioned crops, in addition to the horizontal expansion adopted by the Egyptian government at the present time, However, consumption rates still far exceed what is produced locally. So, it is therefore pertinent for Egypt to check her population growth rate in order to avoid population explosions and their attendant consequences. Suggested population control measures include placing a ceiling on the number of births allowed per family. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| food security; population growth; multi-market model; Self-sufficiency; consumption | ||
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