An Analytical Study to Predict the Prices of Some Strategic Crops in Egypt | ||
| New Valley Journal of Agricultural Science | ||
| Volume 3, Issue 10, October 2023, Pages 253-270 PDF (1 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Research | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/nvjas.2023.244318.1261 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Ghada Ali ELdamrawi* 1; Monera Galal Elnaggar2 | ||
| 1Agricultural Economics Research Institute - Agricultural Research Center | ||
| 2Agricultural Economics Research Institute ,Agricultural Research Center | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Grain crops are one of the most important strategic food crops in the world and Egypt, where the study's problem was due to economic changes in the Egyptian agricultural sector, which made crop cultivation optional, left prices free to respond to supply and demand forces, and gave farmers full freedom to cultivate, market, and buy crops. The research used descriptive and quantitative analysis of statistical data and published and unpublished data from many sources. Production adequacy and import coverage for domestic consumption are important indicators of economic and strategic dimension. After analyzing the time series of the average prices of monthly wheat contracts on the London Stock Exchange for futures contracts from October 2019 to September 2023, the global price of wheat can be predicted for the following 12 months, from October 2023 to September 2024, as it was found that the global price of wheat began to rise in October 2023. By analyzing the time series of the average maize crop prices on the global stock exchange over 36 months, crop prices could be predicted for the next 12 months. The global prices are expected to rise from April to September 2023, then decline in October, November, and December 2023 before rising again in January and February 2024. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Global Price Forecasting; Strategic Commodities; Food Security Indicators; Economic Indicators | ||
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