Statistical Downscaling of Surface Air Temperature Projection over the Egyptian Red Sea Coast | ||
| Egyptian Journal of Aquatic Biology and Fisheries | ||
| Article 81, Volume 28, Issue 1, January and February 2024, Pages 1937-1956 PDF (1.34 M) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejabf.2024.344491 | ||
| Author | ||
| Ahmed Abdelhamid et al. | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The long-term changes in temperature and weather patterns are referred to as climate change. In particular, Egypt is susceptible to the potential consequences of climate change. Numerous ecosystems, mining resources, and touristic activities characterize the region of the Egyptian Red Sea coast (ERSC). Unfortunately, limited scientific studies have been performed on the ERSC, hence there is a large gap in knowledge that exists compared to similar ecosystems. Thus, The ERSC is an important area in which a further study of the climate projection would be highly beneficial. The recent study was implemented over five meteorological stations along ERSC (Suez, Sharm Elsheikh, Hurgada, Safaga, and Marsa Alam) with statistical analysis to describe the observed data (2011- 2021), and ERA5 reanalysis data (1979- 2021) were used together with GFDL mini-ensemble means (2011- 2100) to describe the characteristics of ERSC’s future climate projection. We found that the study area will experience significant warming and increases in risks regarding heat stress. Data analysis revealed that the maximum air temperature occurred during August, while analysis of C_ERA5 (1979- 2021) showed that the annual average surface air temperature ranged from 23.3°C over Suez to 26.2°C over Sharm Elsheikh. According to C_ERA5 (1979- 2021), the historical maximum record of surface air temperature was 46.8°C, while the historical minimum record was 3.2°C. Otherwise, the SSPs' future scenarios showed a maximum increasing value of Tas as in SSP 119 (0.13˚C), SSP 126 (0.36˚C), SSP 434 (0.72˚C), SSP 245 (1.17˚C), SSP 460 (1.52˚C), SSP 370 (1.85˚C), and SSP 585 (2.67˚C). The Suez station showed a distinct tendency from the other ERSC stations under study, which is related to the Mediterranean Sea depression (also known as the Cyprus depression) and the attraction of subtropical streams, whereas the other ERSC stations were impacted by tropical streams. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Red Sea; Statistical downscaling; ERA5; GFDL; Surface air temperature | ||
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