A Blessing or a Burden: The Impact of Overpopulation on Egypt’s Economic Growth (1969-2019) | ||
| المجلة العلمية للدراسات والبحوث المالية والتجارية | ||
| Volume 5, Issue 2 - Serial Number 1, July 2024, Pages 349-396 PDF (2.43 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/cfdj.2024.260478.1883 | ||
| Authors | ||
| Manal Mohamed Emira* 1; Ganna Mohamed Choukry Mohamed2 | ||
| 11 Gamaa Street | ||
| 2Assistant at USAID, Business Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Does a nation’s rapid population growth foster or depress its economic growth? Throughout the centuries, there has never been a consensus among economists concerning the relationship between a country's population growth and its economic growth. The present study investigates the relationship between both variables in Egypt from 1969 to 2019. Based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), the empirical results reveal a negative relationship between both variables in Egypt both in the short and long run. Granger Causality Testing, however, does not show a causal relationship between Egypt's population growth and its economic growth. Such an analysis will provide empirical results as well as policy implications that can be used by the government to draft policies to reduce population growth. From among these policies, implementing other family planning programs and campaigns such as ‘Two is Enough’ would be effective in achieving positive and effective results. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Population Growth; Economic Growth; ARDL; Egypt | ||
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