How Oil Price Shocks Affect the Egyptian Stock Market Performance in the Context of Recent Challenges

Qutb, Rasha; AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag, Hanan

doi:10.21608/inp.2024.240890.1064

	How Oil Price Shocks Affect the Egyptian Stock Market Performance in the Context of Recent Challenges
المجلة المصرية للتنمية والتخطيط
Article 4, Volume 32, Issue 2, June 2024, Pages 56-34 PDF (7.32 M)
Document Type: المقالة الأصلية
DOI: 10.21608/inp.2024.240890.1064
Authors
Rasha Qutb^* ; Hanan AbdelKhalik Abouelfarag
Assistant Professor of Economics – Department of Economics- Faculty of Commerce- Damanhour University
Abstract
This study investigates the time-varying impact of oil price fluctuations on the performance of the Egyptian stock market from 1 January 2020 to 30 June 2022. During this period, the world witnessed two major shocks: COVID-19 and the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, which reconfigured the global oil situation and played a significant role in the functioning of stock markets. For an in-depth evaluation, the study assessed the impact of oil price fluctuations on stock performance for major sectors by utilizing GARCH and EGARCH models. Additionally, the BEKK-GARCH model measures the spillover transmission between oil prices and the stock market. The results revealed a significant adverse effect of oil prices and the fear index (VIX) on EGX100 and EGX30’s daily returns and volatility. The banking, non-banking, and real estate sectors were the most affected. Moreover, a significant bidirectional volatility spillover between the oil and stock markets was detected. The results provide guidelines for investors and financial advisors to enrich their decision-making processes concerning how to efficiently reallocate resources among different economic sectors during periods of fluctuation. This study is among the first to address recent oil price fluctuations’ impact on the Egyptian stock market returns and volatility, emphasizing sectoral performance.
Keywords
BEKK-GARCH; oil price; stock market returns and volatility; sectoral analysis; Egypt

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