Analytical study of the oil gap in Egypt | ||
| Archives of Agriculture Sciences Journal | ||
| Volume 7, Issue 3, December 2024, Pages 100-113 PDF (1.84 M) | ||
| Document Type: Research article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/aasj.2024.315514.1175 | ||
| Authors | ||
| M. A. E. Salem* ; G. A. G. Hussain | ||
| Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al-Azhar University, Cairo, Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Providing edible vegetable oils to the Egyptian consumer is considered an important matter, as it is considered one of the major economic challenges in the agricultural sector. Despite the efforts made by this sector to increase the quantities produced and achieve self-sufficiency and thus food security from edible vegetable oils. However, the oil gap is constantly increasing. Therefore, this research aimed to study the most important indicators related to vegetable oils in Egypt, and to predict them until 2030; in order to determine the size of the actual and expected gap, and the coefficient of food oil security. It was found that the quantity of edible vegetable oils produced amounted to about 386.2 thousand tons, and soybean oil came in first rank in terms of relative importance at 78.1% of the average during the study period (2005-2022), while palm oil, which is imported from abroad, came in first rank in terms of importance from the average loss at 59%. The study predicted an increase in consumption and the oil gap during 2030 to reach about 60.9% and 84.4% compared to 2022, respectively. The study also expects the self-sufficiency rate to decrease in 2030 to reach about 6.2% compared to 2022. While the study expects the average per capita share of vegetable oils to increase by 54.2% in 2030 compared to 2022, it also became clear that the average food security coefficient has reached about 8%, meaning that there is a surplus or reserve of oils sufficient for about 38 days. The study also expects an increase in the strategic stock by 60.3% in 2030 compared to 2022. The research recommended the necessity of planting palm trees to provide oil and hard currency, reduce losses, and plant non-traditional oil crops. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Canola crop; oil food security; forecasting (ARIMA); dependence on others; loss of vegetable oils | ||
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