ADDRESSING SEASONAL VARIATIONS TO PREDICT CONSUMER PRICES OF RED MEAT | ||
| Egyptian Journal of Agricultural Research | ||
| Article 27, Volume 96, Issue 2, July 2018, Pages 747-767 PDF (794.75 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/ejar.2018.136200 | ||
| Author | ||
| WAFAA A. EID | ||
| Cent. Lab. For Design & Stat. Res., ARC, Egypt. | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The study aims to calculate the seasonal index of the prices of red meat (Sheep meat (Dani), Buffalo meat (Jamousi) and Cow meat (Kunduz) during the period (2008-2016) to be used as a guide in decision making of production and consumption and developing the agricultural economic policies. The study used the methodology of Box-Jenkins to predict monthly red meat prices. It was found that the optimal model is [ ARIMA (1.0.1) S (1,1,1)] for buffalo meat, and the best model for monthly prices model for cow meat (Kunduz) is [0,1,2] S (2,0,2)] and the best model for forecasting monthly prices of sheep meat (Dani) is (ARIMA) (0,1,2) S (1.0,0)]. Also, the demand of consumers to buy meat is in October and November during the national holidays and that there is convergence between predictive values and actual values. The study recommends using these models to predict the monthly prices of red meat (Jamousi, Kunduz and Dani). | ||
| Keywords | ||
| SEASONAL VARIATIONS; RED MEAT | ||
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