Contributions of The Proximate Determinants to Fertility Transition in Egypt | ||
| المجلة المصرية للسکان وتنظيم الأسرة | ||
| Article 3, Volume 32, Issue 1, June 1999, Pages 49-63 PDF (11.92 M) | ||
| Document Type: المقالة الأصلية | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/mskas.1999.302281 | ||
| Author | ||
| Hassan H.M. Zaky* | ||
| Department of Statistics, College of Business and Economics, U.A.E. University | ||
| Abstract | ||
| Egypt is in still undergoing its fertility transition from high levels to low levels. Exploring the trends of fertility during the first half of the nineties clearly shows that there is evidence for fertility increase in some regions of Egypt. This study used Bongaarts's indices of the proximate determinants of fertility and a method that was proposed by Zaky in 1997 to decompose fertility changes. This included analyzing the relative contributions of three proximate determinants (marriage, contraceptive use and postpartum insusceptibility) to fertility transition on a regional level in Egypt during the period 1980-1995. The data came from the 1980 Egypt Fertility Survey, 1988, 1992 and 1995 Egypt Demographic and Health Surveys. Contraception had proven to be the most important factor to reduce fertility. However, regions vary in the extent to which changes in contraceptive use inhibited fertility. The reducing effect of contraception was diminishing Marriage had significant effects that changed across regions. The study projected some increase in fertility rates in the regions in the near future, similar to the increase that occurred for the Urban Governorates and urban Upper Egypt. The study then concluded with some policy implications. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Fertility; Bongraat Model; Egypt Fertility Survey | ||
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