Historical and Future Extreme Temperature Indices of Greater Cairo Region, Egypt | ||
| Bulletin de la Société de Géographie d'Egypte | ||
| Article 2, Volume 92, Issue 1, 2019, Pages 40-52 PDF (936.17 K) | ||
| Document Type: Original Article | ||
| DOI: 10.21608/bsge.2019.90372 | ||
| Author | ||
| Gamil Gamal | ||
| Department of Natural Resources - Faculty of African Postgraduate Studies - Cairo University - Egypt | ||
| Abstract | ||
| The main objective of this work to analyze the historical trend of the temperature extreme indices for Greater Cairo Region from 1948 until 2015, by using NCEP reanalysis daily data for minimum and maximum temperatures. Ten extreme temperature indices such as summer days, tropical nights, warm and cold days, warm and cold nights, were calculated for four stations located inside the domain of The Greater Cairo Region such as Cairo, Bahtim, Giza and Helwan. This historical period divided into two short periods, the first from 1948 until 1978 and the second from 1979 until 2015. The results show that there is a significant difference between the two periods. The trend of tropical nights for Cairo station (1948-1978) was negative while the trend for the same station was significantly positive during (1979-2015), also Giza station has the same result for tropical night. Future assessment of extreme temperature indices (2020-2100) was done by using three CMIP5 global climate model with two representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. From future probability distribution function of temperature extremes over Cairo station, a strong shift in mean for summer days at RCP8.5 more than RCP4.5 which will lead to more hot weather and less cold weather. Future projection of climate extremes can help in management and adaptation strategies. | ||
| Keywords | ||
| Greater Cairo; Egypt; Extreme indices; CMIP5; RCP4.5; RCP8.5 | ||
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